Twirl Me
Ad Spend Calculator — Plain Math
How much to spend to get $1 trials → $9.99 members
Your Question: How much daily spend for 10 paid $1 trials?
You want 10 people to pay $1. At 6% trial rate, that means you need 167 free signups (10 ÷ 6% = 167).
Each free signup costs you $2.56($46 ÷ 18 signups = $2.56/signup).
So: 167 signups × $2.56 = $427/day
Spend $427/day → 10 $1 trials → 6 paying members
Today's Meta Ad Data
Today's Trial Log
⚠️ Your real trial rate (5.6%) is below the assumed 6%. If this trial doesn't upgrade, you spent $46.00 for $1 — that's a $45.00 loss per trial.
Funnel Assumptions
Quick Scenarios
The Math — Step by Step
STEP 1: What does one free signup cost?
$46 ÷ 18 signups = $2.56 per free signup
STEP 2: What is one free signup worth?
$1 trial value: 6% × $1 = $0.06
$9.99 value: 6% pay $1 × 80% cards work × 85% don't cancel × 6 months × $9.99
= $2.45
Total value = $0.06 + $2.45 = $2.51 per free signup
STEP 3: Are you profitable?
Value ($2.51) − Cost ($2.56) = -$0.05 per free signup
STEP 4: What is one paying member worth?
$9.99/mo × 6 months = $59.94 LTV
Cost to get that member: $427 ÷ 6 members = $71.13 per member
Profit per member: $59.94 − $71.13 = -$11.19
From 10 $1 Trials → How Many Members?
You spent $427 to get 6 members worth $59.94 each = -$67.14 net
Funnel Fix: What Happens at 40% Trial Rate
You're currently at 6% trial rate. The funnel improvements (countdown urgency, single CTA, onboarding trial step) target 40% trial rate. Here's what that changes:
Value per signup (current)
$2.51
Losing money
Value per signup (at 40%)
$16.70
Profitable!
At 40% trial rate with your current $2.56 CPA, each signup generates $14.15 profit. That's $254.67/day in profit at your current 18.0 signups/day.
90-Day Projection at 40% trial rate:
Note: The 90-day table below uses the slider value (6%). Move the trial rate slider to 40% to see the full projection match this scenario.
Reality Check — Why You're Losing Money
You spend $46.00/day on ads. Your trial revenue is only $1.08/day. That's a $44.92/day gap that subscription revenue has to fill.
You get 0.7 new members/day. Each pays $0.33/day. To cover the gap, you need 135 active members.
❌ Daily revenue never catches up to daily cost in 90 days. The math doesn't work at these numbers.
📊 No cumulative break-even within 90 days. Total loss: $3244.12
What Needs to Change to Be Profitable
You need EITHER 6% trial rate (you have 6%) OR lower your CPA to $2.51 (you pay $2.56). Both need to improve.
Cost per free signup
$2.56
Value per free signup
$2.51
Cost per member
$71
Member LTV
$59.94
90-Day Projection
| Day | Signups | $1 Trials | New Members | Active | Revenue | Cost | Day Net | Cumul. Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $1.08 | $46.00 | -44.92 | -44.92 |
| 2 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $1.08 | $46.00 | -44.92 | -89.84 |
| 3 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $1.08 | $46.00 | -44.92 | -134.76 |
| 6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | $1.81 | $46.00 | -44.19 | -268.07 |
| 9 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 4 | $2.52 | $46.00 | -43.48 | -399.22 |
| 12 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 6 | $3.22 | $46.00 | -42.78 | -528.26 |
| 15 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 9 | $3.91 | $46.00 | -42.09 | -655.21 |
| 18 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 11 | $4.59 | $46.00 | -41.41 | -780.12 |
| 21 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 13 | $5.26 | $46.00 | -40.74 | -903.01 |
| 24 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 15 | $5.91 | $46.00 | -40.09 | -1023.93 |
| 27 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | $6.56 | $46.00 | -39.44 | -1142.90 |
| 30 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 18 | $7.19 | $46.00 | -38.81 | -1259.95 |
| 33 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 20 | $7.82 | $46.00 | -38.18 | -1375.12 |
| 36 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 22 | $8.43 | $46.00 | -37.57 | -1488.43 |
| 39 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 24 | $9.04 | $46.00 | -36.96 | -1599.93 |
| 42 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 26 | $9.63 | $46.00 | -36.37 | -1709.64 |
| 45 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 27 | $10.21 | $46.00 | -35.79 | -1817.58 |
| 48 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 29 | $10.79 | $46.00 | -35.21 | -1923.79 |
| 51 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 31 | $11.35 | $46.00 | -34.65 | -2028.30 |
| 54 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 33 | $11.91 | $46.00 | -34.09 | -2131.13 |
| 57 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 34 | $12.45 | $46.00 | -33.55 | -2232.32 |
| 60 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 36 | $12.99 | $46.00 | -33.01 | -2331.88 |
| 63 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 37 | $13.52 | $46.00 | -32.48 | -2429.85 |
| 66 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 39 | $14.04 | $46.00 | -31.96 | -2526.26 |
| 69 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 40 | $14.55 | $46.00 | -31.45 | -2621.12 |
| 72 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 42 | $15.05 | $46.00 | -30.95 | -2714.47 |
| 75 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 43 | $15.54 | $46.00 | -30.46 | -2806.33 |
| 78 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 45 | $16.03 | $46.00 | -29.97 | -2896.72 |
| 81 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 46 | $16.51 | $46.00 | -29.49 | -2985.68 |
| 84 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 48 | $16.98 | $46.00 | -29.02 | -3073.21 |
| 87 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 49 | $17.44 | $46.00 | -28.56 | -3159.35 |
| 90 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 50 | $17.89 | $46.00 | -28.11 | -3244.12 |